“一带一路”沿线国家暴雨灾害特征及服务需求探析

Study on Characteristics and Service Requirements of Rainstorm Disasters in Countries along the Belt and Road in Recent Years

基于2007—2018年国外“一带一路”沿线国家的暴雨灾害案例,根据不同国家的地理位置将其主要分为东南亚、南亚、中亚、西亚/中东、蒙俄、中东欧地区共6个区域,分别从地域和时间两个维度分析了暴雨灾害时空分布特征,其中,重点分析了暴雨灾害高发区的东南亚和南亚地区的气候特征和灾害分布特点。结果表明:东南亚地区中印度尼西亚是暴雨灾害最多的国家,灾害大致呈“双峰”型年际分布,7月—次年1月灾害次数较多,尤其1月为全年最多;南亚地区中印度是暴雨灾害最多的国家,近年来灾害大致呈逐渐减少的趋势,5—9月是灾害高发期,尤其7月为全年最多。此外,从社会经济状况和防灾减灾能力等方面探析暴雨灾害气象服务需求,需进一步深化与东南亚和南亚等地区的交流合作,开展跨国和跨区域的防灾减灾基础研究,探索暴雨灾害孕育机理,以提升暴雨灾害风险应对策略。

Based on rainstorm disaster cases in countries including the South-East Asia,South Asia,Central Asia,West Asia,Mongolia-Russia and Central and Eastern Europe along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2018,the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainstorm disasters were analyzed,and the climatic characteristics and rainstorm disaster distribution of the South-East Asia and South Asia that mostly threatened by catastrophic rainstorm disasters were emphatically discussed.The results showed that Indonesia was the most threatened by catastrophic rainstorm disasters in South-East Asian,with a bimodal distribution of the annual disasters,and more rainstorm disasters occurred from July to the following January than other months,especially in the January.India was the most threatened by catastrophic rainstorm disasters in South Asia.In recent years,disasters in India exhibited a decline trend and took place more frequently from May to September,especially in July.Moreover,We also explored the meteorological service requirement of rainstorm disasters according to the socioeconomic status and the capability of disaster prevention and mitigation.With the purpose of elevating the countermeasure and suggestion to cope with rainstorm disasters,we need to further deepen communication and coordination with Southeast Asian and South Asian nations,and conduct transnational and trans-regional researches on disaster prevention,mitigation to understand the mechanism of rainstorm disasters incubation.