四川省错季草莓生产区冰雹灾害分布及风险区划

Distribution and risk evaluation of hail disaster of stagger-season strawberry production area in Sichuan province

以四川省错季草莓生产区为研究对象,基于1980—2010年冰雹灾害数据,对冰雹灾害时空分布特征进行分析。结合地理信息数据及防雹作业点数据,从致灾危险性、孕灾环境敏感性及防灾减灾能力3个方面构建四川省错季草莓生产区冰雹灾害风险评估模型,基于GIS平台完成错季草莓雹灾风险区划。结果表明,错季草莓生产区每年均有冰雹发生,发生时段多集中在3—10月,30年内降雹频次呈下降趋势,降雹日数以甘孜藏族自治州最多,攀西地区最少。冰雹灾害风险由西北向东南逐渐降低,高风险区集中在川西北高原西北部及中部,包括石渠县、色达县及理塘县等,低风险区多集中在攀西地区。

Based on the hail disaster data from 1980 to 2010,the temporal and spatial distribution of hail disaster in stagger-season strawberry production area of Sichuan province was analyzed.Combined with the geographic information data and hailstorm operation station data,the hailstorm disaster risk assessment model was constructed from three aspects of hazard risk,hazard bearing sensitivity and disaster prevention and reduction ability,and the hailstorm risk map was completed based on GIS.The results showed that the hail occurred every year in the stagger-season strawberry production area in Sichuan province,mostly from March to October,and the hail frequency showed a decreasing trend in 30 years.The number of hail days was the most in Ganzi prefecture and the least in Panzhihua-Xichang region.The risk of hail disaster gradually decreases from northwest to southeast,and the high risk areas are concentrated in the northwest and central parts of the northwest Sichuan plateau,including Shiqu county,Seda county and Litang county,while the low risk areas are mostly concentrated in Panzhihua-Xichang region.