基于灰色残差马尔科夫模型的河南省小麦生育期旱涝灾变预测研究

Prediction of Drought and Flood Disasters During Wheat Growth Period in Henan Province Based on Grey-Markov Model

介绍了残差灰色预测模型的原理和建模方法,应用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵对残差灰色预测模型进行了改进,并将此模型应用于河南省小麦生育期旱涝灾变的预测中.结果表明,改进的预测模型精度较高,比传统灰色模型预测效果好.

The principle and modeling method of residual grey prediction model are introduced in this paper.And the residual grey prediction model is improved by using Markov state transition matrix. Then the model is applied to the prediction of drought and flood disasters during wheat growth period in Henan Province. The results show that the improved prediction model of Grey-Markov has higher accuracy and better prediction effect than the traditional grey model.