基于系统动力学的宏观调控政策对房地产价格影响研究

Research on the Influence of Macro-control Policy on Real Estate Price based on System Dynamics

本文主要分析上海、重庆和武汉三个城市,将其商品住宅价格系统分人口、供应、需求、GDP和土地价格五个子系统,通过绘制存量流量图和因果回路图分析住宅系统与影响因素之间的关系,并通过调控税率、贷款利率及土地价格增长率等指标来进行单指标和多指标的政策性实验。结果表明:相同的调控政策应用于不同经济水平的城市效果不同;调整贷款利率对商品住宅价格影响较小,土地价格及税率对商品住宅价格影响更为显著。综合调控优于单一调控,政府部门可以同时进行综合调控稳定房价。

This paper mainly analyzes three cities, Shanghai, Chongqing and Wuhan, and divides their commod-ity housing price system into five subsystems: population, supply, demand, GDP and land price. It analyzes the relationship between housing system and influencing factors by drawing stock flow chart and causal loop chart, and carries out single index and multi index by adjusting and controlling tax rate, loan interest rate and land price growth rate Policy experiments. The results show that: the effect of the same control policy ap-plied to different economic levels is different;the adjustment of loan interest rate has less impact on the price of commercial housing, and the land price and tax rate have more significant impact on the price of com-mercial housing. Comprehensive control is better than single control, and the government departments can car-ry out comprehensive control and stabilize house prices at the same time.