基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例

Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model:A case study of Hubei Province

洪涝灾害对产业系统造成的经济影响既有直接经济损失也有间接经济损失,而间接经济损失远远高于直接经济损失,研究间接经济损失对灾害风险控制具有重要意义。论文基于投入产出模型,利用2016年湖北省洪涝灾害直接经济损失数据,从产业关联视角计算不同洪涝淹没水深下的产业部门间接经济损失。研究结果表明:①随着淹没水深增加,不同产业部门受洪涝灾害冲击引起的直接经济损失与间接经济损失相应增加。②大部分产业部门由于产业关联关系造成的间接经济损失高于直接经济损失;当淹没水深较小时,一些资产较密集的产业部门受洪涝灾害冲击较大,造成的直接经济损失高于间接经济损失。③全社会总直接经济损失与间接经济损失呈非线性关系,且间接经济损失随着直接经济损失增加而增加;当淹没水深大于2.093 m时,间接经济损失约是直接经济损失的1.15倍。

Flood disasters cause both direct and indirect economic losses to industrial systems,and indirect economic losses may be much higher than direct economic losses.Studying indirect economic losses is of great significance for disaster risk reduction.Based on the input-output model,this study used the direct economic loss data of flood disasters in Hubei Province in 2016 to evaluate indirect economic losses under different flood water depth,from the perspective of sectorial interconnectedness.The results show that:1)With the increase of flood water depth,direct economic losses and indirect economic losses increase accordingly.2)For most industrial sectors,indirect economic losses caused by industrial interconnectedness are higher than direct economic losses.However,when flood water depth is shallow,some industrial sectors with more intensive fixed assets are more affected by flood disasters,resulting in higher direct economic losses.3)The total indirect economic losses show a nonlinear relationship with the total direct economic losses,but with the same trend.When the flood water depth is greater than 2.093 m,indirect economic losses are about 1.15 times of direct economic losses.