全面二孩政策和延迟退休对城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金的影响

The Impact of Universal Two-Child Policy and Delayed Retirement on Overall Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Employees

本文通过构建测算模型和相关参数设计,测算了2019年~2050年全面二孩政策和延迟退休对我国城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金收入、支出、当期结余、累计结余的影响。研究发现:全面二孩政策下总和生育率每提高0.1,城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金收入年均增长率相应提高0.23%,支出年均增长率相应提高0.12%,当期结余年均增长率相应提高7.14%,累计结余年均增长率相应提高35.30%;与不实施延迟退休相比,实施延迟退休后我国城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金收入年均增长率相应提高1.59%,支出年均增长率没有发生变化,当期结余年均增长率相应提高102.21%,累计结余年均增长率相应提高1249.82%。这表明全面二孩政策和延迟退休均能够显著改善我国城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金收支关系,但延迟退休对统筹基金收支关系的改善效果要显著大于全面二孩政策。

By constructing actuarial model and designing related parameters,this paper studies the impact of the universal two-child policy and delayed retirement on the income,expenditure,current balance and cumulative balance of Social-Unified Funds on Urban Employee Medical Insurance from 2019 to 2050 in China.The study shows that:every 0.1%increase in the total fertility rate,the average annual growth rate of income increases by 0.23%,and the average annual growth rate of expenditure increases by 0.12%,and the average annual growth rate of current balance increases by 7.14%and the average annual growth rate of cumulative balance increases by 35.30%.Compared with the non-implementation of the delayed retirement policy,the average annual growth rate of income increases by 1.59%,and the average annual growth rate of expenditure does not change significantly,and the average annual growth rate of the current balance increases by 102.21%and the average growth rate of cumulative balance increases by 1249.82%.This shows that the universal two-child policy and the delayed retirement policy can significantly improve the revenue-expenditure relationship of social-unified funds on urban employee medical insurance in China,but the effect of delayed retirement is far greater than the universal two-child policy during 2019-2050.