冰冻圈服务综合区划理论与方法

Theories and methods on comprehensive regionalization of cryospheric services

冰冻圈是全球气候系统的主要圈层之一,既具有不可替代的气候效应,又维系着寒旱地区社会经济和自然生态系统良好运行,而中国是中低纬度地区冰川、积雪、冻土发育程度最高的国家。长期以来,针对冰冻圈"致害性"的研究众多,而聚焦冰冻圈服务的"致利性"研究则相对滞后,在此背景下着眼于人类福祉的冰冻圈服务识别与综合区划研究成为冰冻圈科学、人地系统可持续发展等的关键科学问题之一,也是目前迫切需要开展的研究方向。首先,确定以地域分异规律理论、人地关系地域系统理论、集合论和信息编码论等跨学科理论为研究基础;尔后,构建面向综合区划研究的冰冻圈服务分类体系,先以供需均衡模型为核心进行单项服务重要性空间识别,再以服务最大化模型为指导,通过区位熵算法判定冰冻圈主导服务的空间分布;最后,以三维魔方展开法为核心制定冰冻圈服务综合区划方案,将研究区划分多重空间层级、彼此独立完整、相互联系密切的冰冻圈服务单元。综上,形成综合自然供给和人文需求因素且适应地区特色的冰冻圈服务空间识别与综合区划技术体系和方法流程,为冰冻圈服务供给与社会经济发展需要架起一座桥梁,是满足国家重大战略需求和合理利用冰冻圈服务的必由之路。

Cryosphere is one of the five most important spheres, which impacts the global climate system and has a close correlation with the sustainable development of the socioeconomic system and the natural ecosystem. It serves as an important water source and solid water reservoir in cold and arid regions of China, the most developed country in terms of cryospheric in the middle and low latitude area. Widely distributed glacier, permafrost and snow cover not only have irreplaceable climatic effects, but also play a key role in guaranteeing economic development and ecosystem stability of the oasis in China’s cold and arid regions.During the past decades, the studies in this field mainly focus on the adverse impacts of cryospheric;only a few are on cryospheric services and their profitability from socio-economic perspectives. There are even fewer studies on the comprehensive regionalization of cryospheric services. It becomes increasingly prominent to find the way to identify and quantify the structure of cryospheric services and their constituent elements, while we strengthen the scientific understanding of the spatial heterogeneity, complexity, and characteristics of cryospheric services. According to the development needs of the cryospheric science, this paper provides the research on comprehensive regionalization of cryospheric services and hopes to make necessary adjustments to the mutual promotion and coercion relationship of the cryospheric services. On one hand, it meets the major strategic needs of the Belt and Road Initiative, and considers the preparation for the Winter Olympics and the ecological progress;on the other hand, it contributes to mitigating risks and making reasonable use of cryospheric services. Firstly, a classification system is established for cryospheric services. Then, guided by the supply and demand equilibrium model, an importance evaluation of each cryosphere service is carried out, including supply-side importance evaluation, demand-side importance evaluation and the "developmental negative list" for amendment. Afterward, the location entropy algorithm is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the major cryosphere service under the guidance of service maximization model. Finally, the three-dimensional cube expansion method is applied into the comprehensive regionalization of cryospheric services,which divides the study area into multiple spatial levels, such as relatively independent,complete and organically linked units. To sum up, a comprehensive regionalization research system that integrates the natural supply and human demand and suits cryosphere characteristics is constructed. This paper aims at setting up a bridge between the supply of cryospheric services and the needs of social and economic development. It provides a reference for solving one of the key and urgent scientific issues regarding cryospheric science and the sustainable development of the man-earth areal system.