基于地理探测器的北川县地质灾害影响因子定量分析

Quantitative Analysis with Geographical Detectors on the Influence Factors of Geological Disaster in Beichuan

地质灾害一直是许多学者研究的焦点议题。北川羌族自治县作为2008年汶川地震的极重灾区之一,地质灾害严重影响该地区的生产生活。本文以影响北川县居民点的地质灾害普查数据为基础,从地质地貌、气候等方面,应用地理探测器针对北川县地质灾害的发生进行定量归因。研究结果表明:1)单因子方面年降水量(23.22%)影响力最大,地震烈度(3.70%)最小。2)交互作用大于单因子作用,其中,海拔高度与年降水量交互作用后的解释力达到33.37%。该研究成果可为制定北川县地质灾害防治措施和选择移民搬迁场地提供参考依据。

Geological disasters have always been the focus of many scholars. Beichuan Yi Autonomous County as one of the most severely affected areas of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,frequent geological disasters seriously affect the production and life in the region. This paper is based on the geological disaster census data of Beichuan County residents,quantitative attribution of geological hazards to the occurrence of geological disasters in Beichuan County from the aspects of geological features and climate.The results show that: 1) The single factor has the greatest influence is annual precipitation(23.22%).The minimum influence factor is the seismic intensity.2) The interaction is greater than the single factor effect,and the explanatory power after the interaction between altitude and annual precipitation reaches 33.37%.The research results can provide reference for the development of Beichuan County geological disaster prevention measures and the selection of resettlement sites.