日本第11次技术预见方法及经验解析

Japan's 11th technology foresight method and analysis on its experience

技术预见作为致力于将科技与经济深度融合的重要方法和编制国家科技规划的重要手段,在世界范围内运用广泛。日本的技术预见调查有半个世纪的历史,自1971年至今每5年开展一次全国范围内大规模的技术预见调查活动,现已形成制度化的技术预见。本文对日本技术预见的兴起与发展进行分析,重点对日本第十一次技术预见调查的总体结构、实施结果和特点进行剖析,并总结了日本技术预见活动的经验。

Technology foresight,as an important method of deep integration of science&technology and economy,and an important means of preparing national science and technology planning,is widely used in the world.Japan's technology foresight survey has a history of half a century,and a large-scale nationwide survey of technology foresight has been conducted every five years since 1971,which has resulted in institutionalized technological foresight.This paper analyzes the rise and development of Japan's technology foresight,focuses on the overall structure,implementation results and characteristics of the 11th Japan technology foresight survey,and summarizes the experience of Japan's technology foresight activities.