政府补贴、产业结构升级与阶段效应——基于古诺模型的分析框架

Government Subsidies,Industrial Upgrading and Phase Effect——Analysis Framework Based on Cournot Model

在我国经济进入由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段的大背景下,推动产业结构升级成为实现高质量转变的重要基础,政府补贴成为推动产业结构升级的重要手段。从微观层面看,企业是产业升级的决策主体,本文以古诺模型为分析框架,通过构建双寡头企业两阶段动态博弈模型研究政府补贴对产业结构升级的影响,认为政府补贴对产业结构升级的影响存在两阶段效应,当补贴力度较小时,补贴对产业结构的边际影响较小,当补贴力度较大超过某一临界值时,补贴对产业结构升级的边际影响要大于第一阶段,并采用门限回归模型进行了实证检验。因此,为了促进产业结构升级,政府应把握补贴的力度,以最小的代价发挥最大的作用。

Under the background that China's economy has entered a stage from high-speed growth to high-quality development,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure has become an important basis for achieving high-quality transformation,and government subsidies have become an important means to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.From the micro level,enterprises are the decision-making of industrial upgrading.The study based on the cournot model for the analysis framework,through building a two-stage dynamic game model of duopoly enterprises to study the effect of government subsidy to the industrial structure upgrade,and argues the influence of government subsidies on industry structure upgrading has two stage effects,when subsidies strength is small,subsidies on the marginal impact of industrial structure is small,when subsidies larger than a critical value,subsidies on the marginal impact of industrial structure upgrade is greater than the first stage,and the threshold regression model is used for empirical testing.Therefore,in order to promote the upgrading of industrial structure,the government should grasp the intensity of subsidies and play the maximum role at the minimum cost.