基于加权证据权法的吴堡地质灾害敏感性评价研究

Sensitivity Evaluation of Geological Hazards in Wubao County Based on Weighted Evidence Method

通过对晋陕黄土高原河曲-韩城段吴堡县图幅(J49 E 016011)1∶50000地质灾害野外调查,室内收集资料整理分析,选取高程、坡度、坡向、粗糙度、河流、地层、道路、土地利用8个因素作为地质灾害敏感性影响因子。利用Arc GIS空间分析功能,采取证据权法结合层次分析法对图幅范围灾害敏感性研究,用自然断点法将研究区分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区4类,敏感性分区图与野外调查情况基本一致,其AUC评价指标值为0.821,表明该方法预测精度较高,对地质灾害野外调查重点区划分具有一定指导意义,为区域防灾减灾提供科学依据。

Based on the field investigation of geological disasters in the map of Wubao County(J49 E 016011)in Hequ-Hancheng section of Shanxi-Shaanxi Loess Plateau,the indoor data were collected and analyzed.Eight factors such as elevation,slope,slope aspect,roughness,river,stratum,road and land use are selected as the influencing factors of geological hazard sensitivity.By using the function of ArcGIS spatial analysis,the disaster sensitivity of map range is studied by evidence method combined with Analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The natural breakpoint method is used to divide the study into four types:high incidence area,medium risk area,low incidence area and extremely low risk area.The sensitivity zoning map is basically consistent with the field investigation,and the AUC evaluation index value is 0.821,indicating that the prediction accuracy of this method is high.It has a certain guiding significance for the division of key areas of geological disaster field investigation,and provides a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and reduction.