气候变化下黄河流域未来水资源趋势分析

The future water resources regime of the Yellow River basin in the context of climate change

开展流域水资源变化趋势研究是水资源规划和开发利用的基础工作。基于RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)排放情景下7个全球气候模式的气候情景资料,分析了黄河流域未来气温及降水的变化趋势;采用RCCC-WBM模型动态模拟了黄河流域未来水资源情势。结果表明:黄河流域在未来30年(2021-2050年)气温将持续显著升高(线性升率为0.24~0.35℃/(10 a));与基准期(1961-1990年)相比,流域降水总体可能增多,但对降水变化预估的不确定性较大;受气候变化影响,黄河流域未来水资源量较基准期的可能会略微偏少,流域水资源供需矛盾可能进一步加剧;不确定性及其带来的评估风险是目前及未来气候变化影响及水资源评估中需要加强研究的重要内容。

The future water resources prediction is a fundamental work for water resources planning and sustainable utilization.Based on the RCPs climate change scenarios of 7 GCMs projections,the variation trend of temperature and precipitation in the coming decades over the Yellow River basin were investigated,and the future water resources of the Yellow River basin were simulated by using RCCC-WBM model and downscaled climate change projections.The results show that:(1)Temperature will probably continue to rise significantly with a linear rising rate of 0.24~0.35℃/(10 a);(2)The future precipitation will likely increase slightly,with a higher uncertainty;(3)As a result of climate change,water resources over the Yellow River basin will probably decrease in the coming decades,which will aggravate the conflict of water supply and demands to some extent.The research on the uncertainty and the induced-risk in future water resources prediction is a major issue which needs to be enhanced in the further study.