中国碳强度及其影响因素重心的演变特征与相关性分析

本文借鉴区域经济"核心-外围区"和"重心"的分析方法,研究我国碳强度的时空演变特征,进而提炼出碳强度影响因素的重心演变轨迹及其与碳强度重心演变的相关性,以期挖掘出碳强度重心变化的深层次原因。结果发现:我国的减排拉动区主要分布在东部地区,减排中间区部分分布在中部地区,减排滞后区主要分布在西北地区和华北地区。我国的碳强度重心明显向西北推移,而经济重心、工业重心、能源消费重心、人口重心、技术重心等则向西南移动。因此,要实现我国碳强度的进一步降低,应抓住新时代区域协调发展的战略契机,加快东北地区、华北地区和中部地区产业转型升级,优化能源结构;促进西北地区高附加值产业发展,提高碳生产率。

Based on the analysis methods of "core-peripheral zone" and "gravity center" of regional economy, this paper studies the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon intensity in China, and then extracts the trajectory of gravity center evolution of influencing factors of carbon intensity and its correlation with the evolution of gravity center of carbon intensity, in order to find out the deep-seated causes of the change of gravity center of carbon intensity. Results show that the emission reduction driving zone is mainly distributed in the eastern region in China, the middle zone of emission reduction is partially distributed in the central region, while the emission reduction lagging zone is mainly distributed in the northwestern and northern regions. Additionally, the gravity center of carbon intensity in China is obviously moving to the northwest,while the gravity centers of economy, industry, energy consumption, population and technology are moving to the southwest.Therefore, for the further reduction of carbon intensity in China, we should seize the strategic opportunity of coordinated regional development in the new era, speed up the industrial transformation and upgrading in northeastern, northern and central China, and optimize the energy structure;promote the development of high value-added industries in northwestern China and increase carbon productivity.