自贸试验区是否助力了东北地区工业振兴?--来自辽宁自贸试验区的反事实证据

选取工业增加值同比增长率作为度量工业增长的指标,对2012年3月-2018年9月的月度周期内辽宁自贸试验区驱动辽宁、吉林和黑龙江的工业增长情况进行了反事实研究。研究发现:自贸试验区对东北三省的工业增长影响在驱动方向、力度和波幅方面均存在个体异质性,自贸试验区设立后平均正向驱动辽宁和黑龙江工业增长提升了23.76和1.20个百分点,负向驱动吉林工业增长下降了0.95个百分点;对辽宁驱动效应的波幅最大,吉林次之,黑龙江最小;对辽宁的工业增长影响体现集聚和溢出效应,对吉林体现虹吸效应,对黑龙江体现辐射效应。最后,基于整体和局域的二维视角给出加强省际协同与分工、主动对接、错位竞争等优化自贸试验区驱动工业振兴效能的诸多路径。

The thesis selects the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value as an indicator to measure industrial growth,and conducts a counterfactual study on the industrial growth conditions of Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang driven by Liaoning pilot free trade zone during the monthly cycle from March 2012 to September 2018.The results show that,the influence of pilot free trade zone on industrial growth in the three northeastern provinces has individual heterogeneity in driving direction,intensity and amplitude.After the establishment of the pilot free trade zone,the industrial growth in Liaoning and Heilongjiang increases by 23.76 and 1.20 percentage points on average,while the industrial growth in Jilin decreases by 0.95 percentage points on average.The amplitude of driving effect on Liaoning is the largest,followed by Jilin and Heilongjiang.The influence of industrial growth reflects Liaoning's agglomeration and spillover effect,Jilin's siphon effect and Heilongjiang's radiation effect.Finally,based on the two-dimensional perspective of the whole and the local area,the thesis gives a number of optimization paths to improve the industrial revitalization efficiency driven by the pilot free trade zone,such as strengthening inter-provincial collaboration and division of labor,active docking,dislocation competition and so on.