地缘政治风险与贸易流动:理论机理与实证研究

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Flows: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Research

当前,世界经济逐步复苏,国际贸易逐步回暖,然而日渐升级的全球地缘政治风险对全球经济和贸易构成了巨大挑战。文章使用1985~2016年全球双边贸易数据和Caldara和Iacoviello(2018)构建地缘政治风险指数,运用经典引力模型考察了地缘政治风险对全球196个国家和地区双边贸易流动的影响。实证结果表明,地缘政治风险对全球贸易流动具有显著负面影响;同时,这一地缘政治风险与贸易流动的关系受出口国和进口国GDP、地理距离、殖民地关系、区域贸易协定等因素影响。此外,文章还分析了在地缘政治风险较高时期,维持贸易流动可能会产生的政策影响。这些发现与以往研究恐怖主义、战争和暴力对国家之间贸易流动的影响结果相吻合。

At present, the world economy is gradually recovering and international trade is picking up step by step. However, the escalating global geopolitical risks pose a huge challenge to the global economy and trade. Based on the global bilateral trade data from 1985 to 2016 and the geopolitical risk index constructed by Caldara and Iacoviello( 2018),this paper uses the classical gravity model to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade flows in 196 countries and regions around the world. Empirical results show that geopolitical risks have a significant negative impact on global trade flows. At the same time, the relationship between geopolitical risks and trade flows is influenced by the factors including GDP, geographical distance, colonial relations, and regional trade agreements of the exporting and importing countries. In addition, the paper also analyzes the possible policy impact brought by maintaining trade flows during the periods of high geopolitical risks. These findings are consistent with the previous studies of the effects of terrorism, war and violence on trade flows among the countries.