利率调控框架的演变与国际比较——兼议中国新一轮降息周期

The Evolution of Interest Rate Regulation Framework and International Comparison--Also on China's New Round of Interest Rate Cut

我国已逐渐建立起“利率走廊+政策利率”的调控框架,LPR改革后,通过MLF利率实现了贷款基础利率与货币市场利率的间接联结,调降OMO和MLF利率成为国内降息方式。文章分析指出,我国历史上四轮降息周期多发生在国内经济下行压力增大、通胀压力缓解、人民币汇率升值、美国货币政策宽松的阶段。预计未来一个阶段通胀和汇率对国内货币政策的掣肘减弱,在稳增长和降成本诉求下,叠加疫情冲击,国内降息有望延续。

China has gradually established an"Interest Rate Corridor+Policy Interest Rate"regulatory framework.Following the LPR reform,an indirect connection between the Loan Prime Rate and the money market interest rate has been realized through the MLF interest rate.The reduction of OMO and MLF interest rates has become a method of interest rate cut.The article points out that the four rounds of interest rate cuts in China's history mostly occurred during the period of increased downward pressure on domestic economy,eased inflationary pressure,appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,and accommodative US monetary policy.It is expected that the restraint of inflation and exchange rate on China’s monetary policy will weaken in the next stage.Under the demands of steady growth and cost reduction,and coupled with the impact of the epidemic,China’s interest rate cut is expected to continue.