金融资产供需矛盾分析及后市展望

Analysis of Supply and Demand Contradiction of Financial Assets and Outlook for Future Market

2019年至今,中国金融资产供需不匹配导致金融机构出现资产荒。对比2015-2016年,两轮资产荒在经济运行、货币政策、监管导向、资产供给和收益率走势等方面存在诸多不同。展望后市,本轮资产荒演绎时间大概率延长,各资产收益率短期内维持低位震荡,商业银行进入实质性缩表,金融市场进一步面临“结构性”资产荒局面。最后,本文给出商业银行的应对建议。

Since 2019,the mismatch between the supply and demand of China's financial assets has led to asset shortages in financial institutions.Compared with 2015-2016,there are many differences between the two rounds of asset shortages in terms of the economic operation,monetary policy,regulatory orientation,asset supply and yield trends.Looking ahead,this round of asset shortages will most likely be prolonged,the RoR of each asset will remain fluctuating at a low level in the short run,and commercial banks will have substantial balance sheet reduction,and the financial market will be further challenged by a"structural"asset shortage.In the end,the author offers some counter-measures for commercial banks.