三变量模型与“中等收入陷阱”研究——中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的一个虚拟经济视角

The Three-variable Model and Research on the Middle Income Trap--China Overcoming the Middle Income Trap from the Perspective of Virtual Economy

中等收入陷阱问题以及中国能否成功跨越这个陷阱问题已受到中外经济学家的关注。通过三变量增长模型的分析,可以肯定地说中等收入陷阱的存在是经济发展到中高收入阶段的一个基本特征,具有客观实在性。当人均收入达到中高等收入阶段,民众的恩格系数(r)下降、消费系数(β)上升是一个必然结果。三变量模型的计算结果表明,实体经济增长率随恩格系数下降而下降,资本产出比随恩格尔系数下降和消费系数的升高而升高,其最终结果是经济发展到中高收入阶段后,经济增长率成历史性下降、资本产出比成历史性升高。正是经济发展的这两个基本特征,一方面,导致了一些中高等收入国家要进一步发展成高收入国家需要花费较长时间,不确定因素增多,落入中等收入陷阱的概率大大增加;另一方面,导致中高等收入国家的投资效率下降,使原先跨越低收入陷阱的投资促进经济增长模式在跨越高收入陷阱时失效。因此,中国要成功跨越中等收入陷阱必须实现经济增长转型,以投资—产出为主转变为投资—利润为主。进一步计算表明,如果虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率继续保持30%~35%,那么,中国可在10~15年之内跨越中等收入陷阱成为高收入国家。

The economists have all through given attention to this problems of the middle income trap and China overcoming the middle income trap.We apply the three-variable model to analyse problem of the middle income trap and think it is a basic character of the economy development in the middle and high income,being an objective fact.There will be an inevitable result that Engel coefficient falls and consumption level rises when income per head reachs the middle and high income.The computed result of the three-variable model indicates that the real economic growth rate will historically fall along with falling of Engel coefficient,and the capital/output ratio will historically rise along with falling of Engel coefficient and consumption level rising.It was this two basic characters that resulted in the developing country at middle and high income levels to need very long time to overcome the middle income trap becoming a high income state.Because a few uncertain factors add the probability that the developing countries fall into the middle income trap.On the one hand,the two basic characters bring about the middle and high income countries’investment efficiency falling,on the other hand,that lead the pattern of the investment promoting the economic growth fail to overcome the middle income trap though that could successfully overcome the low income trap.Therefore,China overcomes the middle income trap need to change economic growth pattern,it is,the economic growth translated from gaining output into profit.The computed result further indicates that China wants 10~15 years time to overcome the middle income trap becoming a high income country if the rates of the virtual economy’s contribution to China’s economic growth can keep 30%~35%year after year.