基于弹性估计的“一带一路”沿线国家钢铁产能合作潜力测算

An Estimation of the Potential for Cooperation in Steel Production Capacity among One Belt and One Road Countries from 2019 to 2028

基于弹性估计和情境模拟方法测算18个主要“一带一路”沿线国家截至2028年的钢铁产能合作潜力。研究发现:(1)18个主要沿线国家总的钢铁产能合作潜力总量从2019年的平均约7400万吨升至2023年和2028年的1.67亿吨和3.63亿吨;(2)包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南在内的东南亚国家均有很大的产能合作潜力,尤以越南、印度尼西亚和菲律宾为最大;(3)西亚北非次区域国家中,土耳其和伊朗的产能合作不确定性较强,埃及的合作潜力最为明显,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋两国相对较小;(4)印度和巴基斯坦均有千万吨以上的产能合作潜力,长期看印度合作潜力大于巴基斯坦,但巴基斯坦当前的合作潜力高于印度;(5)中东欧次区域内波兰钢铁产能合作潜力最为明显,捷克也有持续为正的产能合作潜力,但前苏联次区域国家钢铁产能合作潜力均为负值。

Based on elasticity estimation and scenario simulation methodology,this paper measures the potential for a cooperation in steel capacity in 18 One Belt and One Road countries by 2028.It is found that:(1)the combined potential of the 18 countries for cooperation in steel capacity will go up from about 74 million tons in 2019 to 167 million tons in 2023 and 363 million tons in 2028.(2)Southeast Asian countries,including Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand and Vietnam,have a great potential for capacity cooperation,especially Vietnam,Indonesia and the Philippines.(3)Of the countries in the West Asia and North Africa,Turkey and Iran have strong uncertainties in capacity cooperation whereas Egypt has the most obvious cooperation potential.Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have relatively smaller potential for capacity cooperation.(4)Both India and Pakistan have potential for cooperation in production capacity of more than 10 million tons.In the long run,India has greater cooperation potential than Pakistan.However currently Pakistan's cooperation potential is bigger than that of India.(5)Within the central and eastern Europe,Poland has the biggest potential and Czech has shown continuous optimistic potential for cooperation in steel capacity as well.The countries within the former Soviet Union all have no potential for cooperation.