混合不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析方法

Quantitative analysis method of aviation unsafe events under mixed uncertain conditions

为解决不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析的难题,基于随机和模糊理论对影响飞行安全的主客观变量进行了混合不确定描述,将难以用概率表示的主观变量处理成为隶属度λ水平截集上服从均匀分布的随机变量。在此基础上,提出了混合不确定条件下航空安全指标和数值计算方法,所提指标和方法能够简洁、直观、准确地反映航空安全水平。通过航空安全领域普遍采用的Bow-tie模型对轮胎爆破事件安全性指标和隶属度关系进行仿真分析。结果表明:将不确定变量控制在一定隶属度水平,能显著提高航空安全指标。

In order to solve the problem of quantitative analysis of aviation unsafe events under uncertain conditions,based on the random and fuzzy theory,a mixed uncertain description of the subjective and objective variables that affect flight safety was proposed.To describe the subjective variables which were hard to be expressed by probability,the random variables that follow a uniform distribution in the-cut set of membership were introduced.Then,an aviation safety index and a numerical computational method under mixed uncertain conditions were proposed,which can reflect the aviation safety level concisely,intuitively and accurately.Through the Bow-tie model which is commonly used in the field of aviation safety,the relationship of the safety index and the membership of tire burst accident was obtained by simulation analysis.The quantitative results show that the aviation safety indices can be significantly improved with proper control of the membership degree.