经济增长模式选择及其演化路径分析

Economic Growth Mode Selection and Its Evolutionary Path Analysis

经济持续快速的增长是社会发展的巨大拉动力,而拉动经济发展的模式众多,应对于经济发展的不同阶段其效果并不相同,所以经济发展模式的选择十分重要。本文回顾了自改革开放以来经济发展历程,总结经济发展拉动力量变化的特点,借鉴演化博弈的思想,构建起政府与企业博弈的基本框架。以消费、投资和进出口作为其演化路径上的决策选择,探讨不同经济环境下策略组合的演化路径,为经济发展模式的选择提出更多依据。结合改革开放以来,我国的经济发展策略发现:拉动我国经济发展主要动力选择比较科学,但动力转换相对周期较长。基于我国发展现状及演化分析结果,制定并执行有利于扩大內需,提高居民消费水平,加大高质量投资等相关政策,提出积极引导投资结构的转变、加快建立健全市场消费体系、构筑稳定的国际贸易伙伴关系。研究的结论对于我国经济在新时代的经济高质量稳健发展和持续进步具有一定的借鉴意义。

The sustained and rapid economic growth is a huge driving force of social development,and the numerous models that stimulate economic development should have different effects on different stages of economic development,so the choice of economic development model is very important.This paper reviews the course of economic development since the reform and opening up,summarizes the characteristics of economic development driving power change,draws on the idea of evolutionary game,and constructs the basic framework of the game between government and enterprise.Taking consumption,investment,and import and export as the decision choices on its evolutionary path,this paper discusses the evolutionary path of strategy combination in different economic environments,and puts forward more basis for the choice of economic development model.Combined with the reform and opening up,China's economic development strategy found that the main driving force choice of economic development in China is relatively scientific,but the power conversion period is relatively long.Based on the results of China's development and evolution analysis,we will formulate and implement policies that are conducive to expanding domestic demand,raising the consumption level of residents,and increasing high-quality investment.It is proposed to actively guide the transformation of the investment structure,speed up the establishment of a sound market consumption system,and build a stable international trade partnership.The conclusion of the study has certain reference significance for the high quality and steady development of our economy in the new era.