煤与瓦斯突出协同预测技术研究及应用

Research on coal and gas outburst collaborative prediction technology and its application

针对现有煤与瓦斯突出预测技术难以实现时间和空间领域的全方位连续预测、防突预测结果利用率低、预测信息发布滞后等问题,提出了一套适用于现代化高产高效矿井的多因素、全方位、时空连续型的煤与瓦斯突出协同预测技术体系.按照煤与瓦斯突出形成的时空维度,将煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测划分为以空间维度为主的区域突出危险性预测和以时间维度为主的局部突出危险性预测.通过对地质构造、煤层埋深、煤体煤质、软煤分布、钻屑指标、瓦斯涌出初速度等区域、局部防突预测数据的深度挖掘分析,得到区域、局部突出危险性预测结果,并按照一定规则进行有效融合,实现时间和空间范围内的连续监测预警.研发了配套的防突信息综合管控平台和WTC-1型瓦斯突出数据采集仪,为煤与瓦斯突出协同预测技术的实现提供了软硬件支撑.现场应用结果表明,该技术预测准确率超过90%,防突预测结果单次审批时间缩短为原来的22.5%,防突信息综合管控平台多次超前捕捉到了煤与瓦斯突出危险,提高了矿井防突信息利用效率.

In view of problems that existing coal and gas outburst prediction technology is difficult to achieve omnidirectional continuous prediction in the field of time and space, has low utilization rate of anti-outburst prediction results and lag in the release of prediction information, a set of multi-factor, omnidirectional, time and space continue coal and gas outburst collaborative prediction technology system for modern high-yield and efficient mines was proposed. According to space-time dimension of coal and gas outburst, coal and gas outburst risk prediction is divided into regional outburst risk prediction based on space dimension and local outburst risk prediction based on time dimension. Through in-depth mining and analysis of regional and local outburst prediction data such as geological structure, coal seam depth, coal quality, soft coal distribution, drill cuttings index, initial gas velocity, etc., regional and local outburst risk prediction results are obtained and effectively integrated in accordance with certain rules to achieve continuous monitoring and early warning in time and space dimension.Supplementary anti-outburst information integrated management and control platform and WTC-1 gas outburst data acquisition device are developed to provide software and hardware support for the realization of the coal and gas outburst collaborative prediction technology. Field application results show that prediction accuracy of the technology exceeds 90%, single approval time of anti-outburst prediction result is shortened to 22.5% of the original time, and the anti-outburst information comprehensive management and control platform has captured the danger of coal and gas outburst many times in advance, which effectively improves the mine anti-outburst information utilization efficiency.