矿井突水水源判别方法

A discrimination method of mine water inrush source

针对现有基于水化学特征的突水水源判别方法过程繁琐、难以判别单个涌水点、忽略了水化学特征之间的相互关联、计算量大等问题,结合Bayes判别法和可拓判别法,提出了一种基于Bayes-可拓判别法的矿井突水水源判别方法.选取潘二煤矿26组不同含水层水样、4组待判水样,以水样中SO4^2-,Cl^-,HCO3^-,K^++Na^+,Mg^2+,Ca^2+含量作为水化学特征指标,建立了水样物元模型,采用可拓判别法求得待判水样与已知水样的关联度;结合Bayes判别法的误判损失和待判水样关于已知水样的密度函数,得出Bayes-可拓解,根据Bayes-可拓解最小值判断突水水样类型.分别采用Piper三线图、可拓判别法、Bayes-可拓判别法判别矿井突水水样类型,结果表明:Piper三线图难以准确判断某一水样类型,可拓判别法存在误判情况,Bayes-可拓判别法能够准确判别突水水样类型.

For problems of existing discrimination methods of water inrush source based on hydrochemical characteristics such as complex process, difficulty to distinguish single water inrush point, neglecting the correlation among hydrochemical characteristics, large calculation amount and so on, a discrimination method of mine water inrush source based on Bayes-extension discrimination method was proposed combining with Bayes discrimination method and extension discrimination method. Twenty-six groups of water samples from different aquifers and four groups of water samples to be judged in Pan’er Coal Mine are obtained, the content of SO4^2-, Cl^-, HCO3^-, K^++Na^+, Mg^2+, Ca^2+in the water samples is taken as hydrochemical characteristic indexes, and thus matter-element models of the water samples are established. The correlation degrees between the water samples to be judged and the known water samples are obtained by use of extension discriminant method. The miscalculation loss of Bayes discriminant method and density function of the water samples to be judged with the known water samples are combined to get Bayes-extension solutions. The type of water inrush sample is discriminated according to the minimum value of Bayes-extension solutions. Piper trilinear diagram, extension discriminant method and Bayesextension discriminant method are adopted separately to discriminate the type of mine water inrush samples. The results show that Piper trilinear diagram is difficult to accurately discriminate a certain type of water samples,extension discriminant method has misjudgment, while Bayes-extension discriminant method can accurately discriminate the type of water inrush sample.