进口贸易自由化是否影响了企业产出波动?

Does Import Trade Liberalization Affect Firms’Output Volatility?

随着中国贸易自由化改革的不断深入,大量国外优质产品涌入国内市场,这使得国内企业的生产和销售行为不可避免地受到进口因素的冲击。文章利用1998-2013年中国工业企业数据库和产品进口关税数据库,考察了中国加入世贸组织以来最终品以及中间品进口贸易自由化对中国制造业企业产出波动的影响效应。研究表明:中间品的进口贸易自由化对中国制造业企业的产出波动具有显著的平抑作用,其中"成本节约效应"和"要素市场多元化效应"是中间品进口贸易自由化影响企业产出波动的重要渠道;而最终品进口贸易自由化并未对中国制造业企业的产出波动造成显著影响,这可能是因为受到国内市场规模、进口结构、价格因素以及出口扩张等方面的潜在干扰,最终品进口贸易自由化的"竞争效应"被逐步淡化,所以未产生明显的作用强度。上述结论不仅加深了我们对进口贸易自由化影响企业生产行为内在规律的认识和理解,也为中国政府如何将"扩大进口开放"与"稳增长"的政策目标有效联系起来提供了一定的经验依据。

Since its accession to the WTO,China has actively promoted trade liberalization. It is undeniable that trade liberalization has brought excellent products,production technologies and solutions from all over the world. However,it is also important to note that with the deepening of trade liberalization reforms,a large number of high-quality foreign products flood into the domestic market,making the production and sales activities of domestic firms inevitably affected by the impact of import factors,which has a profound impact on the stability of firms’ output growth path(i.e. output volatility).This paper uses China’s accession to the WTO as the research background,using Chinese micro data to test the relationship between trade liberalization and output volatility. First,we use the residual regression method to calculate the annual fluctuation index and window fluctuation index of the output growth rate of manufacturing enterprises in China from 1998 to 2013. Second,we combine the product tariff data of WITS products and the input-output table to calculate the import trade liberalization index of China’s manufacturing industry. Finally,we use multiple econometric analysis methods(including:fixed effect/difference-in-differences/panel IV)to systematically evaluate the causal relationship between trade liberalization and output volatility,and then demonstrate the mechanism.Input-trade liberalization has a significant stabilizing effect on the output volatility of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. For every 0.01 unit of absolute change in input-import tariff,the volatility of enterprise sales will decrease by 0.785%,and the volatility of total output will decrease by 0.896%. In terms of the impact mechanism,due to cost-saving effect and factor market diversification effect,input-trade liberalization can effectively improve firms’ intermediate input cost and intermediate input source,and thereby smooth the output volatility. On the other hand,output-trade liberalization has not significantly affected the output volatility. This may be because of the influence of China’s unique large economy,such as large market size or export expansion;the competitive effect of trade liberalization has been gradually weakened,so it does not show a significant effect.The main contributions of this paper are:First,it helps us understand the relationship between import trade and output volatility at a micro level. Second,based on the existing research,we can have a more comprehensive understanding of the effect of trade liberalization on the performance of firm behavior. Third,trade liberalization is divided into two levels:output-trade liberalization and input-trade liberalization,so as to better identify how import trade liberalization affects firms’ output volatility.