俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

Impacts of Changes in Relations Between Russia and the United States and the EU on China

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。

After the Ukraine crisis broke out in early 2014, relations between Russia and the United States and Europe reached their lowest point since the end of the cold war. But Russia, with its strategic forbearance, has adjusted its foreign policy, first to break the a deadlock in the battlefield in Syria and then to ease tension in relations with the US and Europe in 2019. Russian and American leaders met, foreign ministers exchanged visits, and Russia and the United States began negotiations on extending the new START treaty. Meanwhile Russia and the United States are still wrestling fiercely in the fields of arms race, regional conflicts and cultural restrictions. As the US’s presidential election in 2020 is approaching, there is great uncertainty about whether the "Russia-gate" shadow may affect Russia-US relations again. Relations between Russia and the EU are relatively stable and both sides have the desire to improve relations and strengthen cooperation. The issue of Ukraine is one of the important factors affecting Russia-EU relations. After the presidential election in Ukraine in 2019, there are some signs of relaxation and dialogue in the relations between Ukraine and Russia, which will make the Russia-EU relations continue to develop towards the direction of detente and cooperation in 2020. The adjustment of US’s policy towards Russia may have some impact on Russia-China relations, but it will not have a strong impact on the overall Russia-China relations. It is in China’s interests to break the deadlock in relations between Russia and Ukraine and to strengthen Russia-EU cooperation.