基于生产函数法的中国分行业潜在产出测算研究

Research on Estimation of Potential Output of China's Sub-sectors by Production Function Method

随着中国经济进入新常态,准确测算分行业潜在产出对结构性货币政策设计至关重要。本文在估计1978-2018年中国分行业资本存量和劳动力投入的基础上,运用生产函数法对分行业的全要素生产率和潜在产出进行测算,并对未来的分行业潜在产出变动进行科学展望。本文研究结论显示:第二产业潜在产出变动是影响我国1978-2018年潜在产出变动的主要因素,未来保持潜在产出中高速增长的关键在于保持第三产业潜在产出的中高速增长。

As China's economy enters the new normal,accurate measurement of potential output by industry is crucial for the design of structural monetary policies.Based on the estimation of the capital stock and labor input of China's sub-sectors from 1978 to 2018,this paper uses the production function method to measure the total factor productivity and potential output of the sub-sectors,and makes a scientific outlook on the potential output changes of the sub-sectors in the future.The research conclusion of this paper shows that the potential output change of the secondary industry is the main factor affecting the potential output change of China from 1978 to 2018.The key to maintaining the medium-speed growth of potential output in the future is to maintain the medium-speed growth of potential output of the tertiary industry.