离岸利率、汇率对在岸经济的影响分析--以欧洲美元市场为例

Analysis of the influence of offshore interest rate and exchange rate on onshore economy:Take the European dollar market as an example

本文基于资产负债表角度的信用创造理论,分析美元在在岸市场和离岸市场之间的流动,并据此分析美元在两个市场之间的跨境流动是如何影响在岸经济金融,并进一步从实证角度分析离岸市场利率、汇率变化对于在岸经济体货币政策和实体经济影响,结果发现:离岸利率会对在岸利率产生明显的影响;在岸汇率对离岸汇率具有价格引导作用;离岸金融市场会对GDP、CPI等境内实体经济产生明显的影响。

Based on the theory of credit creation from the perspective of balance sheet,this paper analyzes the flow of US dollar between the onshore market and the offshore market,analyzes how the cross-border flow of US dollar between the two markets affects the onshore economy and finance,and further analyzes the impact of interest rate and exchange rate changes in the offshore market on the monetary policy and real economy of the onshore economy from the perspective of empirical analysis.The results show that the offshore interest rate has obvious influence on the onshore interest rate.The onshore exchange rate has a price guiding effect on the offshore exchange rate.The offshore financial market will have a significant impact on the domestic real economy such as GDP and CPI.