资本突停与货币危机

Capital Sudden Stop and Currency Crisis

本文首先梳理出资本突停对货币危机的影响机理,据此为基础选取83个国家11980—2015年2的面板数据为研究样本,从资本流入突停、资本流出突停、资本净流入突停角度出发,利用Logit模型实证探究了资本流动突停对货币危机的影响。实证结果表明:资本净流入突停和资本流入突停大大提高了货币危机发生的可能性,资本流出突停对货币危机并不具有显著的影响。一国要注重加强对资本流动突停的监控,降低资本突停引发货币危机的可能性。

This article first sorts out the mechanism of the impact of capital suspension on the currency crisis.Based on this,the panel data of 83 countries from 1980 to 2015 are selected as research samples.Starting from this,we use Logit model to explore empirically the impact of capital flow suspension on currency crisis.The empirical results show that the net capital inflow stoppage and capital inflow stoppage have greatly increased the possibility of a currency crisis,and the capital outflow stoppage has no significant impact on the currency crisis.A country should pay attention to strengthening the monitoring of capital flow stoppages and reduce the possibility of a capital crisis triggering a currency crisis.