中国“新基建”:投资乘数及其效应研究

“New Infrastructure” in China: Research on Investment Multiplier and Its Effect

投资在中国经济增长中发挥着关键作用,而占固定资产投资四分之一左右的基建投资,在熨平短期经济波动、推动长期经济增长方面贡献更为明显。本文从"传统基建"和"新基建"的内涵、外延和统计角度出发,研究了中国投资乘数和基建投资在中国的重要性。主要研究结论:第一,投资乘数在理论上与人均资本存量、资本产出弹性以及实际利率水平相关。第二,中国经济发展阶段决定了中国总体投资乘数明显低于OECD大部分国家,资本产出弹性较高和人均资本存量水平相对较低,说明中国固定资产投资仍有一定的提升空间。第三,包含"信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业"和"卫生和社会工作"的"新基建"投资乘子与OECD等发达国家相当,且中国"新基建"部门占固定资产投资的比重较低,显示出当前适度推出"新基建"政策非常必要。为贯彻落实"新基建"政策,提出以下政策建议:一是改革创新,扩大"新基建"投资占比;二是因城施策,调整"新基建"投资区域;三是合理布局,优化"新基建"投资结构。

Investment plays a key role in China’s economic growth.Infrastructure investment,which accounts for about a quarter of fixed asset investment,has made an even greater contribution to smoothing short-term economic fluctuations and boosting long-term growth.This paper studies the investment multiplier and the importance of infrastructure investment in China from the perspective of connotation,extension and statistics of"traditional infrastructure"and"new infrastructure".The main research conclusion as follows:First,the investment multiplier is theoretically related to the capital stock per capita,the output elasticity of capital and the level of real interest rate.Second,China’s economic development stage determines that China’s overall investment multiplier is significantly lower than that of most OECD countries,the output elasticity of capital is relatively high and the level of capital stock per capita is relatively low,indicating that China’s fixed asset investment still has some room for improvement.Third,the investment in"new infrastructure",including"information transmission,software and information technology services"and"health and social work",is similar to that in developed countries such as the OECD,and the proportion of China’s"new infrastructure"sector in fixed asset investment is relatively low,indicating that it is necessary to moderately launch the"new infrastructure"policy at present.To implement the"new infrastructure"policy,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:First,"reform and innovation",increase the proportion of"new infrastructure"investment.Second,"city-specific policies",adjust the"new infrastructure"investment area.Third,"better distribution",improve the investment structure of"new infrastructure".