玉溪市县域旅游客源市场分析及预测——以华宁县为例

Analysis and Prediction of Tourist Market at County Level in Yuxi City——Taking Huaning County as an Example

以华宁县为例,对云南省玉溪市县域旅游客源市场进行分析和预测.通过文献调查法、问卷调查法收集华宁县旅游客源市场的相关资料,对旅游客源市场和市场竞争进行分析;采用直线趋势延伸预测法和一元线性回归分析法分别对客源市场规模和旅游收入进行分析和预测.从分析结果看,玉溪市各县区核心旅游客源市场是昆明和玉溪,未来要注重节日旅游产品开发、突出县域旅游主题形象,重点开发核心家庭市场、老年市场和研学市场.

With Huaning County as an example,this paper makes an analysis and a forecast of the tourist market of Yuxi City.The relevant information of Huaning County was collected through literature investigation and questionnaire survey to analyse its tourist market and market competition.And the forecast was made on the scale of tourist market and tourism income respectively by using linear trend extension prediction and linear regression analysis methods.The result shows that the core tourist markets are Kunming and Yuxi;markets for the core family,the elderly and learning and research should be the focus of future development with emphasis on the development of festival tourism products and highlighting the theme image of county tourism.