贵州省农业产值与农民收入关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis Of The Relations Between Agricultural Production Value And Farmer’s Income In Guizhou Province

农民增收是农业、农村发展的集中表现和基础,农业产值与农民收入之间有着内在联系。基于1978-2015年贵州省种植业、林业、牧业、渔业、农业服务业产值及农民人均年收入统计值,运用Eviews7.2软件进行了变量间相互关系的全面分析。结果显示:一是"时间序列"的ADF单位根检验表明,种植业、林业、牧业、渔业产值及农民人均年收入,同为一阶单整序列,农业服务业产值由于统计值仅始于2004年,数据量不足,未通过一阶差分"平稳性检验",故将其对农民增收的贡献归入最终回归方程的常数项;二是变量间"协整检验"表明,种植业、林业、牧业、渔业产值与农民人均年收入间存在协整关系;三是变量间Granger因果检验表明,种植业、林业、牧业、渔业产值与农民人均年收入间存在部分因果关系;四是介于变量间关系的部分Granger因果检验未达显著水平,故引入"残差"项,以种植业、林业、牧业及渔业产值为解释变量、农民收入为被解释变量,进行"误差修正"模型估计分析,得出种植业、林业、牧业及渔业产值对农民收入的贡献权重(回归方程系数)分别为0.30、0.09、0.38和0.32,即贵州农民增收主要依靠牧业、渔业和种植业的发展。

The increase of farmer’s income is the base and intensive show of agricultural and rural development,as there exists inner interaction between agricultural production value and farmer’s income.In this paper,based on the production values of cropping,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and sideline and farmer’s annual income from 1978 to 2015 in Guizhou province,Software E-views 7.2 is used for comprehensively analyzing the relations between these variables.The results show as follows:1.due to insufficient number of its statistical figures starting only from 2004,the stationary test of‘time series’of the variables indicates the sideline one is not stationary and then its contribution to farmer’s increase is included in the constant of regression equation,while the farmer’s income and the production values of cropping,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery are all belonging to the 1 st-differentiated integration series;2.the co-integration test indicates the farmer’s income and the the production values of cropping,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery are con-integrated each other;3.the Granger causality test indicates there are some causalities between these variables in a way;4.in view of that some Granger causality tests do not reach significant level,the residual is introduced to estimate error-corrected regression equation through the production values of cropping,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery leading to the increase of farmer’s income,which educes that their contribution weights(the coefficient of regression equation)are 0.30,0.09,0.38 and 0.32 respectively,or the farmer’s income increase in Guizhou province mainly depends on the development of animal husbandry,fishery,cropping and forestry,orderly.