基于农户视角的农业巨灾风险评估与测度

ASSESSMENT AND MEASUREMENT IN AGRICULTURAL CATASTROPHE RISK BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF FARMERS

[目的]探索农业巨灾风险的有效评估与水平测量,既是“三农”风险管理的要求,也是加强农村防灾减灾能力建设的重要途径之一。[方法]文章以我国28个不同省份地区的651个村1355户农户的入户调查数据和国家统计局统计数据作为样本,运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)构建农业巨灾风险评估指标体系,对我国农业巨灾风险进行评估与测度。[结果]我国农业巨灾风险总体属于高风险等级,而区域风险分布差异较大,西部风险最高,中部居中,东部风险最小。其中,西部和中部区域的农业巨灾风险属于高风险,东部区域属于中等风险。东部区域在防灾减灾能力、承灾主体能力、孕灾环境水平、防灾减灾保障性等方面均优于中西部区域。[结论]研究认为,在影响农业巨灾风险的因素中,虽然客观致灾因子无法规避,但建设提高孕灾环境水平和防灾减灾能力,可降低农业巨灾的风险感知与风险程度;同时,培育风险文化和建设经济能降低风险脆弱性。

Exploring the effective assessment and measurement of agricultural catastrophe risk is not only the requirement of agriculture,rural and farmers risk management,but also one of the important ways to improve the capacity of rural disaster prevention and mitigation.This paper took the household survey data of 651 villages and 1355 households in 28 different provinces of China as the sample,and constructed the index system of agricultural catastrophe risk assessment by using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)to assess and measure the agricultural catastrophe risk in China.The results showed that the overall risk of agricultural catastrophe in China belonged to the high risk level,while the regional risk distribution was quite different,with the highest risk in the west,the middle risk in the middle and the lowest risk in the east.Among them,the western and central regions were at high risk of agricultural catastrophe,while the eastern region was medium risk.The eastern region was superior to the central and western regions in disaster prevention and mitigation,disaster bearing capacity,disaster environment level and disaster security.According to the study,among the factors that affect the agricultural catastrophe risk,although the objective disaster-causing factors cannot be avoided,the risk perception and risk degree of agricultural catastrophe can be mitigated by improving the disaster environmental level and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.At the same time,cultivating the risk culture and developing economy can reduce the risk vulnerability.