我国商业银行经营投资银行业务对风险影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Impact of Commercial Bank Investment Banking Business on Risk

本文以2009-2018年19家商业银行为研究对象,运用波动性分析、相关性分析及面板数据回归分析方法,考察了经营投资银行业务对银行风险的影响。研究结果表明,投资银行收入无明显周期性趋势,波动性明显高于利息净收入,经营投资银行业务会加剧银行业收入的不确定性,但由于收入占比较小,投资银行业务并非造成我国银行业收入波动的主要因素。多数银行的投资银行收入与利息净收入表现为正相关性,银行难以通过经营投资银行业务实现风险分散目的。投资银行业务对银行风险影响的回归结果较为显著,随着投资银行收入在银行收入结构中的权重越来越大,银行多元化收入程度随之加深,银行风险也随之下降。

Taking 19 commercial banks from 2009 to 2018 as the research objects,this paper uses the volatility analysis,correlation analysis and panel data regression analysis model to investigate the impact of investment banking business of different types of commercial banks on risks of the bank.The results show that there is no obvious cyclical trend in the income of investment banks,and the volatility is obviously higher than the net income of interest.Operating investment banking will aggravate the uncertainty of the income of the banking industry.But owing to the small proportion of income,the investment banking businesses are probably not the major factor causing fluctuation in China’s banking industry.The investment banking income and net interest income of most banks are positively correlated,so it is difficult for banks to realize risk diversification by operating investment banking business.The regression results of the influence of investment banking on bank risk are relatively significant.With the increasing weight of investment banking income in the bank’s income structure,the degree of bank diversification income is deepened and the bank risk also decreases.