摘要
本文在一般均衡框架下拓展了线性理性预期模型,将通胀惯性引入菲利普斯曲线,构建了非线性的逻辑平滑转换回归模型,通过对货币政策的线性函数和非线性函数估计结果的比较,发现我国货币政策以预期通胀率作为转移变量的非线性特征非常明显,转移变量的阈值和转移速度的变化更符合我国实际的货币政策操作事实,同时货币政策中有明显的利率惯性和平滑效应特征。
In this paper,the linear rational expectation model is extended based on general equilibrium framework,and a nonlinear logic smooth transition model is investigated by introducing the inflation inertia into Phillips curve.The monetary policy of central bank,with expected inflation rate as transfer variable,exhibits distinct nonlinearity observed from the estimation results between linear and nonlinear monetary policy functions.And the threshold of transfer variable as well as the variation of transition speed conforms more to the practice of monetary police.It also takes on striking characteristics of the inertia interest rate and smooth effect.
出处
《浙江金融》
2020年第2期27-40,共14页
Zhejiang Finance
基金
2016年浙江省社会科学基金项目“中国经济新常态下的宏观经济波动研究—基于中国本土化的动态随机一般均衡模型分析”(项目编号:16NDJC195YB)成果
浙江省一流学科A类(浙江工商大学统计学)资助。
关键词
货币政策
产出缺口
通胀率
逻辑平滑转换函数
Monetary Policy
Output Gap
Inflation Rate
Logic Smooth Transition Function
