租购并举、货币政策与房地产市场波动

Rent And Purchase,Monetary Policy And The Fluctuation of Real Estate Market

为补足房地产市场发展短板,有效解决房地产市场结构性失衡,我国提出加快建立租购并举的住房制度,健全住房租赁市场,满足居民居住需求。本文通过构建一般均衡模型,分析住房租赁市场发展对宏观经济的影响,并采用1998~2010年全国30个大中城市季度数据分析在房地产市场化改革前期房地产市场结构失衡对宏观经济的影响,采用2002~2019年全国月度数据分析实施租购并举住房制度后房地产市场结构改善情况下,宏观经济变化以及货币政策对房地产市场的调节效应。研究结果表明:第一,房地产市场化改革前期,住房以"居住"属性为主,"投资"属性相对较弱;第二,租购并举制度下房租房价之间"剪刀差"的缩小能够有效改善房地产市场失衡的状况;第三,货币政策对房地产市场具有显著影响,但不同的货币政策会产生截然相反的作用。

In order to make up the short board of the real estate market and effectively solve the structural imbalance in the real estate market,China proposes to speed up the establishment of the housing system of renting and purchase,and improve the housing rental market to meet the residents’living demand.By constructing a general equilibrium model,this paper analyzes the impact of the development of housing rental market on macro-economy and the effectiveness of macro-control of monetary policy.Then,this paper uses the quarterly data of 30 large and medium cities in 1998-2010 years to analyze the impact of the unbalance of the real estate market structure on the real estate market in the early period of the reform of the real estate market,using the monthly data of 2002-2019 years to analyzes the moderating effects of Macroeconomic change and monetary policy on the real estate market.The results show that:first,in the early stage of the real estate market reform,housing is mainly"residential"property,"investment"property is relatively weak.Second,as the"scissors gap"between rent and housing prices shrinks,the imbalances in the real estate market will be improved.Third,monetary policy has a significant impact on the real estate market,but different monetary policies will have a completely opposite effect.