未来中国城镇化的理想水平 与乡村治理的中国方案

The Ideal Level of Urbanization in the Future China And The Chinese Solution for Rural Governance

初步的估算表明,未来30年,随着我国年均经济增长速率的逐渐走低和劳动生产率的逐渐提升,我国绝对剩余人口的数量和比重确有可能逐渐增加到一个较大的数值。在政策层面选择让这些人口生活在乡村地区或城镇地区,不仅事关剩余人口安置,而且事关未来中国社会形态和文化形态等方面的建设。贺雪峰曾经建议将他们保留在乡村地区,并提出了相应的乡村建设和治理方案。虽然这一建议及其方案的合理性和可行性仍值得进一步斟酌,但其所要回应的问题值得我们重视。

Preliminary estimates demonstrate that the number and proportion of absolute surplus population in China may gradually increase to a higher level with the decline of the average annual economic growth rate and the increase of labor productivity in the next 30 years.At the policy level,the decision to let these people live in rural or urban areas is related not only to the resettlement of the remaining population,but also to the construction of social and cultural forms in China in the future.He Xuefeng once proposed to keep them in rural areas and put forward suggestions concerning rural construction and governance.While the reasonableness and feasibility of his proposal and suggestions are worthy of further considerations,the issues aroused deserve our attention in response.