施工项目经理舞弊行为分析模型构建与致因解释

Fraud analysis model construction and cause explanation of construction project managers

以舞弊三角理论为基础,构建建设工程施工项目经理(CPM)舞弊“直接动因?调节动因?行为倾向”量化分析模型。开发含压力、借口和机会三维度的舞弊动因量表及地材采购、伪造证据做假账冲平账目和投其所好3项舞弊倾向情景模拟实验。通过240份有效样本数据,构建直接致因结构方程路径分析递归模型、调节致因分组回归模型与多层线性回归模型,揭示舞弊行为特征与致因关系:CPM行贿倾向最显著,侵吞资产倾向次之,贪污腐败倾向不显著;舞弊动因可联合解释舞弊倾向,关系压力、制度缺陷和非利己借口是舞弊主要致因因素;机会强解释贪污腐败倾向和侵吞资产倾向,借口强解释侵吞资产倾向;个体因素较环境因素对舞弊倾向有更强的解释作用;人格特质显著调节行贿倾向,过度自信正向调节机会与侵吞资产倾向关系,风险偏好正向调节机会与贪污腐败倾向关系。研究结论为CPM舞弊行为规律发现和有效防范提供支持。

This paper constructed the“direct cause-Moderator cause-Behavior tendency”quantitative analysis model of the fraud behavior of construction project managers(CPM),based on the fraud triangle theory,developed a fraud factor scale with three dimensions of pressure,excuse and opportunities,and designed the situational experiments of fraud disposition include corruption,asset misappropriation and bribery.Then by model building include SEM recursive model of CPM fraud direct cause,multiple linear regression models and hierarchical linear regression models of CPM fraud moderator cause,and 240 sample data collecting to analysis revealing the characteristics and causation of fraud behavior,the results show that:bribery is most obvious,assets misappropriation takes second place and corruption is lesser obvious;the causes of fraud can jointly explain the fraud tendency,the key factors influencing CPM fraud are relationship pressure,system defect and non-egoism excuses;opportunity significant effects in corruption and bribery,and excuse significant effects in misappropriation of assets;individual factors explains fraud tendency more strongly than environmental factors;personality traits significantly regulate the direct cause of bribery,overconfidence positive adjustment opportunities and the tendency to embezzle assets,risk preference positive adjustment opportunities and corruption tendencies.The conclusions provide support for finding the behavior law,effective prevention CPM fraud.