2003-2017年中国女性宫颈癌死亡趋势分析--基于年龄-时期-队列模型

Analysis on Chinese Women’s Cervical Cancer Death Trends from 2003 to 2017--Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model

目的:探讨2003-2017年我国成年女性宫颈癌死亡趋势。方法:采用年龄-时期-队列模型和内生因子法估计宫颈癌死亡风险的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果:2003-2017年,我国女性宫颈癌死亡率整体呈上升趋势,APC模型分析显示,我国女性宫颈癌死亡风险的年龄效应随年龄增加而增大,城市和农村女性分别在70~74岁和50~54岁面临更高的死亡风险;出生队列效应整体呈下降趋势,且变化速度波动较大。结论:应积极开展宫颈癌防治相关知识宣传工作,加大宫颈癌筛查力度,提倡健康的生活方式。

Objective To explore the death trend of cervical cancer among adult women in China from 2003 to 2017. Methods The age-period-cohort model and endogenous factor method were used to estimate the age, period and cohort effect of cervical cancer mortality risk. Results From 2003 to 2017, the overall mortality rate of cervical cancer among females in China showed an upward trend. The analysis of APC model showed that the age effect of cervical cancer death risk among females in China increased with age. Urban and rural women face higher risk of death at ages 70-74, and 50-54, respectively;the overall effect of the birth cohort is declining, and the rate of change fluctuates greatly. Conclusion Health promotion of cervical cancer prevention related knowledge should be actively carried out, cervical cancer screening should be increased, and a healthy lifestyle should be promoted.