美国伊朗新一轮对抗及爆发战争的危险

A New US-Iran Confrontation and the Risk of War

新年伊始,美国就再一次打开了"潘多拉盒子",用无人机发射导弹刺杀了伊朗高级军事将领苏莱曼尼,不仅使美伊直接对抗,还引发中东局势进一步动荡。美伊关系不仅有延续四十多年的对抗冲突,也曾有相互支持、利用的"蜜月期",甚至美国等西方国家还是伊朗核发展项目的始作俑者。延续至今的冲突对抗皆因意识形态上的分野和现实利益矛盾。美伊之间的博弈还将继续:制裁与反制裁,挑战与威胁甚至代理人战争还会发生,但形式和程度会有不同。美国是世界头号军事强国,但伊朗也拥有很强的反制能力,使美国不能小视。尽管美伊对抗冲突加剧,但爆发大规模全面战争的可能性不大。双方都没有把接触、谈判的大门关闭。值得注意的是,以色列更可能对伊朗进行军事打击。

At beginning of the New Year,The United States opened Pandora’s Box again by launching a drone missile that killed Iran’s top military commander Gen.Qassem Soleimani,bringing the two countries into direct confrontation and further destabilizing the Middle East.The relationship between the US and Iran has not only lasted more than 40 years of confrontation and conflict,but also had a"honeymoon period"of mutual support and utilization.Even the US and its allies were the initial backers of Iran’s nuclear development program.The conflicts and confrontations that have lasted up to now are all due to ideological divergences and contradictions of practical interests.The game between the US and Iran will continue:Sanctions and counter-sanctions,challenges,threats and also proxy wars will continue,but in different forms and degrees.The United States hold the most powerful war machine in the world,but Iran also has a strong ability to counter,and then the US couldn’t look down upon it.A large-scale war is unlikely although the conflict between the US and Iran has intensified.Neither side has closed the door to contact and negotiation.Notably,it is probability that Israel could carry out a military strike against Iran.