中海自贸区框架下农产品技术性贸易壁垒降低的经济效应--基于全球贸易分析模型的模拟分析

Economic Effects of Reducing Technical Barriers on Trade of Agricultural Products within the Framework of the Free Trade Negotiation between China and GCC--An Empirical Analysis Based on the GTAP Model

利用全球贸易分析模型,从宏观影响、贸易影响和产出变动三个层面分析中国与海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会自由贸易区框架下降低农产品技术性贸易壁垒所产生的经济效应及其相应机制。结果显示:农产品关税和技术性贸易壁垒的降低对中国国内生产总值增长的影响较小,但技术性贸易壁垒的降低减少了农产品的生产和流通成本,中国农产品进出口总量呈增长趋势,其中,中国对海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会的纤维作物、加工食品等产品的出口量增幅明显;贸易规模的扩大促进了国内油料作物、纤维作物等行业的产出增加,导致中国大部分农产品部门要素投入增加,从而对居民收入和资本收入产生一定的积极影响,促进了国内福利的增加。

From three aspects of macroeconomic impact,trade impact and output change,this paper,employing the Global Trade Analysis Project( GTAP) model,studies the economic effects and the corresponding mechanism of reducing tariffs and TBT of agricultural products under the framework of FTA negotiation between China and GCC. We conclude that the reduction of trade tariffs and TBT has a little impact on China’ s GDP growth,while the reduction of TBT has cut down the production and circulation cost of agricultural products. The overall agricultural trade volume of China has shown an increasing trend,and the volume of China’ s export to GCC has grown significantly in fiber crops,processed food and other industries. The expansion of trade scale has driven the output up in domestic oil crops,fiber crops and other industries,which has led to an increase of factor inputs in most agricultural sectors in China,so that it produces a certain positive impact on household income and capital income,and promoting the improvement of domestic welfare.