“一带一路”沿线国家产业结构对中国对外直接投资的诱发作用研究--基于“陆上丝绸之路”与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的比较分析

Study on the Inducing Effect of the Industrial Structure of the Countries along “the Belt and Road” on China’s OFDI--A Comparative Analysis of the Countries along “the Land Silk Road” and “the Maritime Silk Road”

选取"一带一路"沿线57个国家2010~2015年的面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计和面板分位数回归法,比较研究"一带一路"沿线国家产业结构对中国对外直接投资的影响。结果表明:"一带一路"沿线国家的产业升级会抑制中国对外直接投资进入,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家产业链低端环节进行投资存在被"替代"风险;东道国产业结构对中国对外直接投资的诱发作用仅在已承接较多中国对外直接投资的国家存在,且第二产业的诱发力最强,中国企业进入第二产业具有较强的相对优势和较小的投资风险;"陆上丝绸之路"沿线国家产业结构对中国对外直接投资的诱发作用比"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家更为显著,但"海上丝绸之路"的区位要素更具吸引力。

This paper collects the panel data of 57 countries along "the Belt and Road"during 2010-2015,and compares the impact of the national industry structure along "the Belt and Road"on China’ s OFDI by System GMM and panel quantile regression. The results show that the industrial upgrading of the countries along "the Belt and Road"will inhibit the entry of China’ s OFDI,and China’ s investment in the low-end industrial chains of "the Belt and Road"countries will face "substitution"risks. The inducing effect of the host country’ s industrial structure on China’ s OFDI only exists in the countries that have undertaken a lot of Chinese OFDI,and the inducing force of the secondary industry is the strongest. Therefore,Chinese enterprises investing in the secondary industry have stronger comparative advantages and smaller investment risks. The inducing effect of the industrial structure of the countries along "the Land Silk Road"on China’ s OFDI is more significant than that of"the Maritime Silk Road",but the location elements of "the Maritime Silk Road"are more attractive.