实力结构、欧盟经验与东亚困局——兼论中国的东亚合作战略

Power Structure,EU Experience and East Asian Dilemma: Also on China’s East Asian Cooperation Strategy

在欧盟的区域合作当中,法德合作发挥了关键性作用,使得这一区域合作进程能够抵御内部和外部的各种风险。分析欧盟的成功经验,国际结构是一个核心因素。全球层面的两极结构赋予了欧洲国家联合自强的动力,而同属于美国阵营这一点也使之获得了霸权国的有力支持,法德两国构成的两极结构成为了欧洲区域合作的坚强领导核心。不过,欧盟的经验并不适用于东亚,两极结构并不一定能促进区域合作。由于东亚国家冷战时期分属两极对抗的不同阵营,以及冷战后中国所具有的独立性,全球性实力结构对于东亚区域合作就起到了制约而非促进的作用。在地区层面,由于缺乏欧洲内部的制度相似性和集体观念,以及中国和日本各有其全球雄心,地区层面的两极结构无法形成一个类似的中日合作轴心。在可见的将来,中国应该有选择地推动与东盟和其他东亚国家的一体化,而不是着眼于推动以中日合作为核心的全地区性区域合作进程。

In the EU regional cooperation process, the cooperation between France and Germany has played a critical role in making this process strong enough for internal and external risks. International structure is a core factor for the success of EU. The European states have been motivated by the global bipolar structure to unite and enhance their status. They have got the support from the hegemon because they belong to the US camp. France and Germany constitute another bipolar structure as the strong core in regional cooperation process. But the EU experience cannot apply to East Asia, and bipolar structure cannot always promote regional cooperation. During the Cold War, East Asian states belong to different cold camps;after the Cold War, China has become an independent great power. Thus global power structure has constrained East Asian regional cooperation rather than promote it. On the regional level, because of the lack of institutional similarity and collective identity, and the global ambition of China and Japan, East Asian regional bipolar structure cannot turn into a Sino-Japanese cooperation axis. In the near future, China should promote regional cooperation with ASEAN and specific regional states rather than a whole-regional cooperation process with Sino-Japanese cooperation as the core.