新铁幕抑或新冷战:美中关系现状及中国应对之道

New Iron Curtain or New Cold War: Current Status of US-China Relations and China’s Response

随着美中关系进入全面战略竞争时代,准确定义美中关系的属性及特征,成为一个重要的理论和政策问题。美国对华政策具有严重的冷战色彩,但新冷战的到来需要满足对抗的高风险性、中间地带逐渐消失、出现新的对抗领域和方式以及结局的零和性四个条件,当代国际经济体系的深度融合、中美关系的历史惯性以及国际社会的渗透性制约了美国采取真正的新冷战政策。美国今天采取的实际政策,用新铁幕概括更为准确,美国在意识形态、国际经济、政治与军事安全领域对中国全面围堵,试图推动中国与国际体系脱钩。新铁幕的实施是弹性的,美国对低风险、低成本和结果可控的需要,使铁幕还不是一个闭合的封锁圈,但是,新铁幕战略也是模糊的,对中国而言面临着升级的风险和隔离的风险。中国需要在战略理念层面对最坏局面、外交被动性和互利互助意义下降有所准备。在路线方针政策方面,中国坚持发展导向、开放导向,坚持战略克制,重新思考国际统一战线的意义;并针对最坏局面的可能性,在强化国民经济独立自主能力、军事威慑能力、重新审视不结盟政策方面,作出新的努力。

As US-China relations enter the era of comprehensive strategic competition, accurately defining the attributes and characteristics of US-China relations has become an important theoretical and policy issue. But the arrival of the new cold war needs to meet the four conditions of high risk of confrontation, the gradual disappearance of the middle zone, the emergence of new confrontation areas and methods and zero-sumness of endings. The deep integration of the contemporary international economic system, the historical inertia of Sino-US relations, and the penetration of the international community have restricted the United States from adopting a truly new Cold War policy. The actual policy adopted by the United States today is more accurately summarized with a new iron curtain. The United States has comprehensively encircled China in the areas of ideology, international economy, politics and military security, and is trying to promote China’s decoupling from the international system. The implementation of the New Iron Curtain is flexible. The United States’ need for low risk, low cost and controllable results makes the Iron Curtain not a closed blockade. But the New Iron Curtain strategy is also vague, and China faces the risk of upgrading and isolation. China needs to be prepared at the strategic level for the worst-case situation, for diplomatic passiveness, and for the significance of mutual benefit and mutual assistance to decline. In terms of line policy, China adheres to development orientation, openness orientation, strategic restraint, and rethinks the meaning of the international united front. Aiming at the possibility of the worst situation, new efforts are being made to strengthen the national economy’s independent and autonomous ability, deterrent ability, and re-examine the non-aligned policy.