摘要
2019年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情给我国经济社会发展和人民生活带来严重影响.如何科学合理计算新冠肺炎传播的基本再生数对疫情的控制尤为重要.目前,已有的计算新冠肺炎基本再生数方法大都基于数据辨识模型参数进而算出其值.给出一种利用数据结合模型直接计算新冠肺炎传播基本再生数的新方法.利用该方法及峰值数据可以计算基于SIR模型、SEIR模型及SEIAR模型全国、湖北及广东新冠肺炎传播的基本再生数.该方法能反映基本再生数和新冠肺炎传播相关数据的直接关系.
In 2019,emerging COVID-19 outbreak has a severe impact on the development of our society and human life.How to scientifically and reasonably compute the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 plays an important role in presentation of COVID-19 infection.Recently,the existing computational method of the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 propagation is mainly based on the parameter identification.In this paper,we propose a novel approach to directly compute the basic reproduction number by reported data of COVID-19 in China.Applying such an approach and reported cases at peak arrival time,we employ SIR model,SEIR model and SEIAR model to calculate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 infection in China,Hubei and Guangdong.This method reflects the relationship between the basic reproduction number and reported data.
作者
杨俊元
张烁
王国强
李学志
Yang Junyuan;Zhang Shuo;Wang Guoqiang;Li Xuezhi(Complex Systems Research Center,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;College of Mathematics and Information Science,Henan Normal University,Xinxiang 453007,China)
出处
《河南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第2期1-5,F0002,共6页
Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(61573016,61873154,11771017)
山西省新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)预防和控制项目(202003D31011/GZ).
