“托市”政策对中国大豆市场的影响——基于价格传导和波动视角

Impact of"Market-supporting"Policy on China’s Soybean Market--From the Perspective of Price Transmission and Fluctuation

国内大豆需求较大,政府为鼓励大豆生产,2008年起陆续实行临储和目标价格等一系列干预大豆市场价格的"托市"政策。这些政策短期可以稳定市场,但长期却易使大豆价格偏离市场,增加"去库存"压力,影响中国大豆市场安全。运用非对称误差修正模型和多变量条件异方差等模型,从大豆价格传导和波动视角,对"托市"政策实行前后进行对比分析的结果显示:实行市场"托市"政策后两种价格的短期修正能力明显下降,价格传导的非对称性加强,价格波动加剧,不利于大豆市场安全。因此,建议减少政策对大豆市场价格的干预;加大资金技术投入,提高大豆产出水平;促进规模化生产,延长产业链。

The soybean demand is large in China.In order to encourage domestic soybean production,the government has implemented a series of"market-supporting"policies that intervene in soybean market prices,such as temporary storage and target prices.These policies can stabilize the market in the short term,but they can easily cause soybean prices to deviate from the market in the long term,increasing the pressure of"destocking"and affecting the safety of the Chinese soybean market.Therefore,asymmetric error correction model and multivariate conditional heteroscedasticity model was used to make a comparative analysis before and after the implementation of the"market-supporting"policy from the perspective of soybean price transmission and fluctuation.The results show that the short-term correction capacity of the two prices has significantly decreased after the implementation of the"market-supporting"policy,the asymmetry of price transmission has strengthened,and price volatility has increased,which is not conducive to the safety of the soybean market.Therefore,it is recommended to reduce the policy intervention in the soybean market price,to increase capital and technology input to improve the level of soybean output,and to promote large-scale production and extend the industrial chain.