基于熵权-灰色关联分析的电动汽车充电基础设施PPP项目风险评价研究

Research on Risk Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure PPP Project Based on Entropy Weight-Grey Relation Analysis

电动汽车充电基础设施PPP项目的建设和实施,不仅可以有效缓解政府财政和管理压力,还可以借助社会资本先进的管理运营经验,提高充电服务供给效率,实现双赢。但是,电动汽车充电基础设施PPP项目具有投资大、特许运营期长等特点,同时还涉及多个项目参与者,关系复杂,潜在的风险因素较多。文章通过文献梳理,首先识别出了电动汽车充电基础设施PPP项目潜在的风险因素,从宏观、中观、微观三个层次建立了基于项目全生命周期的风险评价指标体系,然后建立了基于熵权-灰色关联分析的项目风险评价模型。最后,以T市电动汽车充电基础设施PPP项目为例进行了实证分析,并根据风险评价的结果,从不同项目参与方的角度提出了风险应对的策略。

Electric vehicle charging infrastructure(EVCI)PPP projects not only can effectively relieve government’s financial and managerial pressure,but also can use the advanced operational and managerial experience of social capital to boost the efficiency of charging service supply,which can achieve a win-win situation.However,the EVCI PPP projects have the characteristics of large investment and long concession period.Meanwhile,they also involve multiple project participants.The relationship among participants is very complicated.Thus,there are many potential risk factors in EVCI PPP projects.By analyzing a large number of literatures,this paper firstly identifies the potential risk factors of EVCI PPP project,and constructs a risk evaluation index system based on the project life cycle from three levels which are macro,meso and micro.Then,the project risk evaluation model based on entropy weight-grey relation analysis is established.Final y,taking an EVCI PPP project in T city as an example,the risk evaluation model is used for empirical analysis,and based on the empirical results,the risk response strategies are proposed from the perspective of different project participants.