劳动力流动如何影响个体的社会治安感知——基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)的实证分析

How Labor Mobility Affects Personal Social Security Perception:An Empirical Analysis Based on China Family Dynamic Tracking Survey

中国日益频繁的劳动力流动如何影响广大人民群众的社会治安感知,仍然是一个亟待回应的命题,为此,本文基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查CFPS2014和CFPS2016,尝试从微观层面验证劳动力流动对个体社会治安感知的影响。研究发现,随着本社区劳动力流入比例的提升,个体的社会治安感知水平会下降,社区劳动力流出比例的上升则有助于提升个体感知的社会治安水平。引入工具变量纠正可能的内生性,上述结论依然稳健。异质性分析发现,劳动力流入对女性的边际影响大于男性,对老一代的影响大于年轻代,对高收入个体的影响大于低收入个体,对城市个体的影响大于农村个体,对居住在东部地区个体的影响大于中西部地区的个体。劳动力流出对女性、老一代、高收入、城市社区和东部地区的影响与基准模型保持一致,但对男性、年轻代、低收入、农村社区和中西部社区个体的社会治安感知没有显著影响。进一步,探索劳动力流动影响个体社会治安感知的影响机制,发现劳动力流入主要通过社会信任感和就业的渠道发挥作用,劳动力流出主要通过贫富差距和住房问题来影响个体社会治安感知。

How China’s increasingly frequent labor mobility affect public’s perception of social security is still a proposition that needs to be responded to.Thus,this paper based on the Chinese Family Dynamic Tracking Survey CFPS2014 and CFPS2016,trying to verify the impact of labor mobility on individual social security perception from the micro level.The results show that as the proportion of labor inflows in the community increases,the individual’s social security perception will decline,and the outflow of community labor will significantly improve the level of public security perceived by individuals.After the introduction of instrumental variables to correct possible endogeneity problems,the result is still robust.According to the heterogeneity analysis of gender,inter-generational,family income,urban and rural areas,eastern and central and western regions,it is found that the marginal impact of labor inflow on women is greater than that of men,and the impact on the older generation is greater than that of younger generations.The impact of income is greater than that of low income,and the impact on cities is greater than that of rural areas.The impact on the eastern region is greater than that in the central and western regions.The impact of labor outflows on women,the older generation,high incomes,urban communities,and the eastern region is consistent with the baseline model,but has no significant impact on the social policing perceptions of male,young,low-income,rural,and mid-western communities.We further explore the influence mechanism of labor mobility on individual social security perception,and find that labor inflow mainly has effect through social trust and employment channels,and labor outflow mainly affects individual social security perception through the gap between rich and poor and housing issues.