影子银行与地方政府债务性风险关联研究

Research on the Correlation between Shadow Bank and Local Government Debt Risk

分析影子银行和政府债务性风险之间的特征、现状、关联点,以及地方政府债务风险的管控办法。基于影子银行和地方政府债务风险之间的关联点,从影子银行业务及其相互交融来说明影子银行对于地方政府债务的传导机制。通过时间序列数据模型来检测近年来我国地方政府债务性风险,实证分析了影子银行对于地方政府债务风险的影响:全国地方政府债务风险和影子银行长期保持稳定关系,影子银行对地方政府债务性风险有正相关性影响,并提出相应对策建议。

This paper analyzes the characteristics,current situation,and related points between shadow banking and government debt risks,as well as local government debt risk control methods.Based on the connection point between shadow banking and local government debt risk,the shadow banking business and its mutual integration illustrate the transmission mechanism of shadow banking to local government debt.Through the time series data model to detect the local government debt risk of China in recent years,the empirical analysis of the impact of shadow banking on local government debt risk:the national local government debt risk and shadow bank have maintained a stable relationship for a long time,and shadow bank has a local government debt risk Have a positive correlation,and give corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.