京津冀旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业协调发展差异研究

Study on the Differences in the Coordinated Development of Tourism Industry-Regional Economy-Social Undertakings in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

构建京津冀旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业协调发展评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型,对京津冀三地2004—2017年旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业的协调发展水平进行定量分析,采用灰色关联分析对旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业协调发展的影响因素进行研究。结果表明:京津冀旅游、经济、社会事业子系统的综合发展得分总体上均呈现出增长态势,北京市旅游业发展滞后于经济、社会事业发展,天津市、河北省的旅游业发展皆领先于经济、社会事业发展;京津冀三地的旅游与经济、旅游与社会事业的协调水平均表现出逐步提高的态势,河北省旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业的耦合协调发展可以分为“波动上升、快速上升、急速上升”三个阶段,北京市、天津市旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业的耦合协调发展皆可划分为“波动上升、快速上升、缓慢上升”三个阶段;北京市、天津市的旅游子系统、社会事业子系统对当地旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业耦合协调发展的影响强于经济子系统,河北省旅游子系统、经济子系统对当地旅游产业-区域经济-社会事业耦合协调发展的影响强于社会事业子系统。

The synergies between tourism,economic and social development will play an invaluable role in promoting urban development.On the basis of constructing a system of evaluation indicators for the tourism industry,regional economy and social undertakings system,the degree of synergy of the tourism,economy and society system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2004-2017 was calculated using the coupled coordination degree model,and the influence factors of the degree of synergy were analyzed by gray correlation analysis.The results show that:The comprehensive development scores of the tourism,economy and social undertakings subsystem in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei show an overall growth trend,with the development of tourism in Beijing lagging behind the development of economy and social undertakings,and the development of tourism in Tianjin and Hebei leading economy and social undertakings.The level of coordination between tourism and economy,tourism and social undertakings in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has shown a gradual improvement,and the coupled and coordinated development of tourism industry-regional economy-social undertakings in Hebei can be divided into three stages of"rising volatility,rapid rise and sharp rise",while the coupled and coordinated development of tourism industry-regional economy-social undertakings in Beijing and Tianjin can be divided into three stages of"rising volatility,rapid rise and slow rise".The influence of the tourism subsystem and social undertakings subsystem in Beijing and Tianjin on the coordinated development of local tourism industry-regional economy-social undertakings coupling is stronger than the economic subsystem,and the influence of the tourism subsystem and economic subsystem in Hebei Province on the coordinated development of local tourism industry-regional economy-social undertakings coupling is stronger than the social undertakings subsystem.