灰色MGM(1,m,N)模型的构建及其在雾霾预测中的应用

Construction of gray MGM(1,m,N) model and its prediction application on haze

针对传统MGM(1,m)模型和GM(1,N)模型均未能反映多个系统行为变量在多个因素变量影响下的模拟预测问题,本文根据两个模型各自特点对传统MGM(1,m)模型和GM(1,N)模型进行拓展,构建了灰色MGM(1,m,N)模型.研究该模型的建模机理及过程,并解决在多个因素变量的影响下多个系统行为变量的模拟预测问题.最后,将三种模型应用于雾霾的模拟预测中,结果表明,MGM(1,m,N)模型预测精度高于传统的MGM(1,m)模型和GM(1,N)模型,这主要是由于该模型能够较好地描述和反映多个系统行为变量受多个因素变量的影响.

Owing to the defect of the traditional MGM(1,m) model and GM(1,N) model,we cannot reflect the problem of simulation prediction of multiple system behavior variables under the influence of multiple variables,this paper extends the traditional MGM(1,m) model and GM(1,N) model according to the characteristics of the two models,and the gray MGM(1,m,N) model is constructed.The modeling mechanism and modeling process of the model are studied to solve the problem of simulation and prediction of multiple system behavior variables under the influence of multiple variables.Finally,the three models are applied to the simulation and prediction of Haze weather.The results show that MGM(1,m,N) model has higher prediction precision and better prediction effect than the traditional MGM(1,m) model and GM(1,N) model,which is mainly due to the fact that the model can describe and reflect the effects of multiple variables of system behavior.